The US-Iran war has returned to exactly where it started. Iran on Sunday vowed that “not a single drop” of oil or gas would transit the Strait of Hormuz if American aggression continued, as the US military completed its ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets.
The Iranian declaration came from a senior official who said Tehran would block the waterway entirely, the same threat that preceded the conflict’s escalation months ago. The oil price passed $90 a barrel in response, and a maritime agency reported a vessel on fire in the strait.
Back to square one.
The war began on February 28 with joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran. The stated reason: to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply once passed. A 60-day interim ceasefire last month was supposed to produce a permanent end to the fighting. Instead, the ceasefire collapsed, both sides resumed attacks, and Iran is now making the same threat that started everything.
Nothing has been resolved. The strait is less open now than it was before the war began. Oil prices are higher. Seventeen American service members are dead. More than 430 have been wounded. Iran’s supreme leader is dead. Iranian infrastructure is in ruins. And the fundamental dispute, whether Iran can or cannot close the strait, remains exactly where it was on day one.
The US military says it is “holding Iran accountable” and has struck more than 300 Iranian military sites, including air-defense systems, radar installations, missile launch sites, and coastal surveillance infrastructure. President Trump said the strikes were carried out “in honour” of killed US military personnel.
Iran’s leadership, meanwhile, has hardened its position. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned of “unforgettable lessons” if the US keeps attacking. An Iranian negotiator said Tehran was suspending its commitments to the interim deal and accused the US of violating it.
The cycle is now complete: Iran threatens to close the strait, the US strikes, Iran retaliates, the US strikes again, Iran threatens to close the strait again.
The only thing that has changed is the cost. The war that was supposed to be limited has stretched into its fifth month. The ceasefire that was supposed to produce peace has produced more war. And the strait that was supposed to be reopened is, in Iran’s own words, closed. The question nobody in Washington seems able to answer is what comes after square one.