The national average gas price in the United States has climbed back above $4 a gallon, as the war with Iran enters its fifth month and shows no signs of ending.
Drivers are paying $4.00 per gallon on average, according to tracking data, an increase of $0.85 from the same time last year. The price had briefly fallen from a peak of $4.46 reached on May 27, but the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran has sent it climbing again.
The cause is straightforward. The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil once passed, has become a war zone. Shipping traffic has fallen to a fraction of pre-war levels. The US Navy warns that “deliberate hostile action is considered highly likely” against any vessel transiting the waterway. And Iran has now vowed that “not a single drop” of oil or gas will pass.
President Trump’s Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, acknowledged on Sunday that Trump “knew he was going to drive up energy prices in the short run” with his actions against Iran but said the president “had the courage to take the action anyway.” The oil price has now passed $90 a barrel.
The impact on American households is direct and painful. Every dollar rise at the pump translates into higher costs for commuting, shipping goods, and heating homes. The national average of $4.00 conceals wide variation, drivers in some states have been paying well over that for weeks.
The price spike has become a political problem for the administration. Trump has attempted to frame the war as necessary to secure global energy supplies, but the arithmetic is hard to argue with: the war that was supposed to protect oil flows has instead driven gas prices to levels not seen since the inflation crisis of the early 2020s.
The White House has tried to blame Iran for the disruption. But the US chose to go to war, and the US chose to escalate after the ceasefire collapsed. The price at the pump is a direct consequence of those choices, and unless the war ends, there is no reason to expect it to fall.