MOSCOW, Petrol stations across Russia are running dry. Drivers queue for hours. Fights break out in line. In the Black Sea resort of Anapa, Cossacks have been deployed to keep order. One mayor in Siberia installed portable toilets for stranded motorists.
The fuel crisis gripping Russia is not a temporary hiccup. It is the result of sustained Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, and it is forcing ordinary Russians to confront the cost of a war their government told them was going well.
“Strange having to queue in a country that extracts so much oil,” Valery, a Moscow resident, told the BBC. “I have no desire to get used to queues. I hope the situation will change soon.”
What is happening
Ukrainian long-range drone and missile strikes have targeted Russian oil refineries and fuel depots across the country for months. The strategy, pushed by Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, is designed to starve the Russian military of fuel while applying economic pressure to the civilian population.
It is working. Even in Moscow, authorities cannot guarantee fuel supplies. Stations have rationed sales. Many have banned jerry cans. Bus services have been reduced. Garbage collections are disrupted. Farmers fear they will not be able to bring in the harvest.
“Not happy… panic because everybody thinks there will be no oil,” said Yekaterina, another Moscow resident. “We just need to reorganise the oil distribution.”
Putin’s response
President Vladimir Putin has publicly acknowledged the shortages, calling them “obviously creating problems” but insisting “it’s not critical.” The government has increased fuel imports, subsidized prices, and allowed the sale of lower-grade fuel, though some motorists fear it may damage their engines.
But the response has not calmed public nerves. Independent polling from the Levada Center shows Putin’s approval rating slipping to around 74 percent, still high by Western standards, but trending downward. The number of Russians who believe the country is heading in the “right direction” has fallen to 52 percent, from 61 percent in May.
State-run VCIOM recorded a 3.4-point drop in trust in Putin in a single week.
The economic picture
“Fuel crisis may be a game-changer for economic growth,” Christopher Weafer of Macro Advisory told the BBC. The full impact will not be visible until July data is released, but the trajectory is clear: Russia’s wartime economy, propped up by oil revenues, is being hit where it hurts most.
Gallup recorded the most pessimistic economic sentiment in Russia in 20 years, with 60 percent of respondents saying conditions are getting worse.
Will Putin change tack?
The question hanging over Western capitals is whether economic pressure will force Putin to negotiate. The evidence so far suggests not.
“The more pressure he feels, the more likely he would act aggressively and repressively,” said Nina Khrushcheva of The New School. Western expectations that Russians will rise up and force the regime to change course are, she said, “a fantasy.”
Putin was recently filmed in military fatigues, claiming victories and promising to take more territory. He has ordered commanders to analyze the “real combat actions” of Ukraine’s European allies for what he called “responsible decisions in the future.”
Fuel queues in Moscow have not changed his calculations. The question is whether empty tanks at the front will.