Israel’s parliament dissolved early Friday, setting the stage for an October election that polls suggest could end Benjamin Netanyahu’s long hold on power.
The Knesset completed its full four-year term , the first Israeli government to do so in 40 years , and automatically dissolved on July 17. Elections are scheduled for October 27, the latest date permitted by law. The vote is widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s rule after more than two years of war that has left the country politically fractured and its military stretched thin.
Netanyahu’s coalition, the most right-wing in Israeli history, survived its full term despite repeated crises. But it did not go quietly. In its final days, the government raced through a marathon of legislation aimed at shoring up alliances and securing Netanyahu’s position heading into the campaign.
Seven pieces of legislation were fast-tracked. The most controversial: a bill to exempt ultra-Orthodox seminary students from military service, a demand of the Haredi parties that have kept Netanyahu in power. Another bill would weaken the state attorney general’s position , currently held by Netanyahu’s vocal critic Gali Baharav-Miara , by making the government’s legal adviser’s opinions non-binding.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid accused the government of prioritizing its own survival over the country. “While they are busy with their coalition’s survival, we are fighting for the country,” he said.
Netanyahu enters the election at his weakest point in years.
A poll by Hebrew University found that 92 percent of Israelis believe Iran won the war that began in February. Support for Netanyahu’s premiership dropped from 40.5 percent in March to 29.4 percent in June. The public is angry about the ceasefire deal that halted the US-Israel campaign against Iran, which many see as unfavorable to Israel.
The security failures surrounding the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack continue to weigh on him. The war in Gaza that followed killed nearly 55,000 Palestinians and left much of the territory in ruins. The hostage crisis remains unresolved.
On top of all this, the Israeli military is warning of an urgent manpower shortage after more than two years of fighting on multiple fronts. The debate over ultra-Orthodox conscription , who serves and who is exempt , cuts to the heart of that shortage.
Netanyahu’s main rival is Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who has formed a new party called Yashar (“Straight”). Eisenkot argues that only his party can form the next government and that the outgoing coalition’s legislative marathon was aimed at passing laws that would be impossible once he takes power.
“A government is exploiting the final days of the Knesset’s session to pass laws against the army,” Eisenkot said.
Polls show Netanyahu trailing. But Israeli elections are unpredictable, and Netanyahu has survived worse moments. He has said he intends to win and has floated the idea of forming a “broad national government” that reaches across the aisle , a pitch that sounds like national unity but may be a bid to fragment the opposition.
The election will be fought on at least four fronts: the war in Gaza and its unresolved endgame, the wider war with Iran and the unpopular ceasefire, the Haredi draft crisis, and Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial. Any one of these would be enough to define an election. All four together make this the most consequential Israeli vote in years.