President Trump is nearing a decisive fork in the Iran war. Regional mediators are pushing a new 10-day ceasefire aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. US and Israeli officials see only one alternative: a massive joint military campaign to force Tehran’s capitulation.
Trump has not made a decision yet. But officials believe the next few days will determine the direction of a conflict that has already killed thousands, drawn in regional powers, and disrupted global oil markets.
The Axios report Monday laid out the two options starkly. Option one: accept a 10-day ceasefire to find ways to revive the interim deal reached in June — the Islamabad Memorandum. Option two: escalate to an all-out campaign with Israel to destroy Iran’s military infrastructure and force an unconditional surrender.
The choice comes after weeks of back-and-forth. Mediators passed Iran a proposal over the weekend offering a 10-day ceasefire, according to a senior Iranian source cited by Reuters. The plan would revive the framework of the Islamabad Memorandum, a 14-point document signed by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on June 17 in Pakistan, which established a 60-day period to negotiate final terms.
That deal never took hold. On July 8, Trump declared the ceasefire “over” after both sides traded strikes. Low-intensity fighting has continued since then. Now mediators — including Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman — are scrambling to pull both sides back from the brink before the situation spirals further.
Trump’s deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz is approaching. He told the Wall Street Journal recently that his deadline is Tuesday evening. Roughly 20% of global oil passes through the strait, and Iran’s closure of the waterway has sent energy prices soaring worldwide.
The two endgames reflect different calculations. A 10-day ceasefire would buy time for negotiations, but it risks the same collapse that killed the last deal. An all-out campaign with Israel could end the Iranian regime’s ability to threaten shipping and its proxies, but at the cost of a wider war that could draw in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon.
Israeli officials are reportedly pushing for the harder option. They see a window to degrade Iran’s missile and drone capabilities permanently while the US military is fully engaged in the theater. US commanders are more cautious, warning that a ground invasion of Iran would be a massive undertaking with no clear exit.
The economic stakes are enormous. The Strait of Hormuz closure has already pushed oil above $120 a barrel. Inflation fears are mounting globally. Trump’s own political standing depends partly on whether voters blame him for the economic pain or credit him for a decisive victory.
For now, the mediators keep working. But the window is closing. If the 10-day ceasefire fails to gain traction, the all-out war option moves from contingency to plan.