India’s monsoon season has opened with its weakest performance in more than a decade. The country received just 99.5 millimeters of rainfall in June, 39.8 percent below the long-period average of 165.3 millimeters, making it the fifth-driest June since nationwide records began in 1901 and the driest since 2014.
Only four Junes have been drier in 125 years: 1905, 1926, 2009, and 2014.
“It was the fifth-driest June for India since 1901, and the driest in 12 years,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, in a press briefing cited by the BBC.
The monsoon arrived over Kerala on June 4, three days behind schedule, and then stalled for roughly two weeks across western and central agricultural regions. Out of India’s 741 districts, 560 reported deficient rainfall, 76 percent of the country. Only 181 districts received normal or excess rainfall, concentrated in roughly a quarter of the country’s meteorological area.
Dwarka in Gujarat recorded zero millimeters of rain. Normal June rainfall for the city is 100.3 millimeters.
Sowing Slumps Across Key Crops
The early-summer shortfall has directly hit the kharif growing season, the crucial summer-sown harvest that accounts for roughly half of India’s foodgrain production. By June 25, total sown area stood at 18.3 million hectares, down 23 percent from 23.7 million hectares at the same point in 2025.
Rice, India’s staple crop, had been sown on 2.6 million hectares, down 25 percent from the previous year. Cotton, a key cash crop, fell 30 percent to approximately 3.2 million hectares. The sharpest declines were in oilseeds (including soybean) and pulses, each down about 44 percent from June 2025 levels.
The government has maintained its kharif foodgrain production target at roughly 176 million tons, but achieving it will depend on a significant recovery in July, the wettest month of the monsoon season, which normally delivers about a third of the June-to-September total.
“This was the time for rice nurseries and cotton and groundnut sowing,” said an analyst quoted by Fortune India. “Monsoon revival in July remains crucial for the fate of these crops.”
Government Response
The government has activated district-level contingency plans in 315 districts identified as vulnerable to below-normal rainfall. Of those, 111 are classified as high-priority, meaning less than 25 percent of their cropped area is irrigated. Vulnerable states include Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha.
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said the government was “preparing in advance, not waiting for a crisis” and stressed water conservation, crop diversification, and scientific sowing practices.
India carries substantial food buffer stocks. Government rice reserves stand at 39.7 million tons against a buffer requirement of 13.5 million tons, with an additional 29.8 million tons expected once paddy already procured is milled. These stocks cushion against short-term supply disruptions, but they do not protect farm incomes, and a prolonged shortfall would strain the system in the post-monsoon lean season.
July Forecast and El Nino
The IMD’s latest forecast predicts below-normal rainfall for July, at 94 percent of the long-period average of 280.4 millimeters. The full-season (June to September) forecast has been downgraded from an initial April estimate of 92 percent of the long-period average to 90 percent.
The culprit is El Nino, which emerged in the Pacific during June and is expected to strengthen through the monsoon season. El Nino is historically associated with weaker Indian summer monsoons. The Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to remain neutral, which in a typical year provides limited counterweight to El Nino’s drying influence.
A low-pressure system developing in the Bay of Bengal is expected to bring good rainfall in the first week of July, a welcome but temporary reprieve that may allow catch-up sowing of short-duration crop varieties.
The private forecaster Skymet has assigned a 30 percent probability of outright drought for the full season and a 40 percent probability of below-normal rainfall, projecting total seasonal rainfall at 94 percent of the 870-millimeter normal.
The Broader Picture
The June deficit fits a pattern of increasing monsoon variability that climate scientists have linked to rising global temperatures. While the relationship between climate change and the Indian monsoon is complex, warmer air holds more moisture, which can intensify both floods and droughts, a pattern that played out in 2024-2025 as well, when the monsoon onset arrived late but produced intense rainfall in some regions.
This year, the timing of the shortfall is the critical factor. June and July are the main planting months, and a recovery that comes too late will reduce yields even if total seasonal rainfall ends up near normal. S&P Global Ratings has already projected India’s GDP growth to slow to 6.6 percent in fiscal year 2027, down from 7.7 percent in 2026, citing energy stress and the sub-par monsoon among the headwinds.
For now, farmers are waiting for the rain.
Sources
- Abhishek Dey, “Farming worries after India records driest June in over a decade,” BBC News, July 1, 2026.
- India Meteorological Department, monthly rainfall data for June 2026.
- “India faces driest June in over a decade, 76% districts deficient,” The Hindu BusinessLine, June 30, 2026.
- “El Nuno strengthens: Full monsoon season likely below normal, says IMD,” Fortune India, June 30, 2026.
- “IMD says June rainfall 39% below normal,” Down to Earth, July 1, 2026.