The pattern repeats. The United States bombs Iran. Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. The United States bombs again. Iran retaliates. Someone declares the ceasefire dead. Someone says talks will continue. And the cycle begins again.
This week the loop tightened. On Friday, President Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire “OVER”, his capitalization, while simultaneously saying that talks would go on. On Saturday, the IRGC announced it had closed the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice” after firing a naval cruise missile at the Cyprus-flagged MV GFS Galaxy, a commercial vessel that suffered severe engine room damage. One crew member is missing. The crew abandoned ship.
The United States responded with a third wave of strikes this week, hitting 140 Iranian military sites, missile and drone positions, communication networks, and coastal surveillance stations in the port cities of Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Chabahar, Bandar-e Deyr, and Asaluyeh.
“Iran made a poor choice. Now they pay,” said US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Iran’s response came in two registers. The IRGC struck Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan, claiming destruction of a command center and MQ9 drone hangars. Missiles and drones were also reported over the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain. And Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, issued his first major public statement since taking power after his father’s assassination in February.
“We pledge to avenge the blood of the martyred leader and all the martyrs of these two wars from the criminal and disgraced killers,” Khamenei said. “The matter depends neither on my personal existence nor on that of other officials. Whether we are present or not, it will come to pass.”
The funeral of Ali Khamenei, finally held this week after months of delay, featured placards calling for Trump’s assassination. Trump warned that any attempt on his life would trigger the destruction of “all areas” of Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz closure is the most dangerous escalation. About 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes through the narrow waterway. Iran’s demand, through the IRGC, is that ships must use a route through Iranian waters rather than the US-recommended route through Omani waters. The IRGC warned that US “aggression” as a result of the closure would be met with “severity” and that new bases in the region would be targeted.
US Central Command framed the escalation as Iran’s failure to comply with the existing memorandum of understanding. “Iran was provided yet another opportunity to demonstrate adherence to the Memorandum of Understanding after being held accountable for earlier attacks on commercial vessels but has again failed,” Centcom said.
The phrase “yet another opportunity” cuts to the heart of the question. How many opportunities? How many ceasefires? How many cycles of strike-and-retaliate before someone asks whether either side actually wants this war to end?
The mediators are still trying. Trump confirmed talks would continue even as he declared the ceasefire dead. The US demand, delivered through mediators, is simple: Iran must publicly state the Strait of Hormuz is open and pledge to stop firing on commercial ships. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accuses the US of violating the deal. Iran told US officials the earlier tanker attacks were a mistake by a “rogue internal group”, a claim Washington has not accepted.
Neither side can afford to stop. Trump has built his presidency on projecting strength; a ceasefire that looks like retreat, especially with Khamenei’s revenge vow ringing in the background, is politically impossible. Iran’s new supreme leader needs to prove he is as hard as his father, and his regime is fighting for survival against a US military that has said it is prepared to destroy Iran completely.
The result is a war that neither side can win and neither side will end. Bis repetita, and again, and again.