Volodymyr Zelensky did two things in one speech on Tuesday night. He told the United States that Ukraine has handed over a written plan to end the war, and he warned that Russia is preparing to draft hundreds of thousands more men behind the cover of an election.
He said in his evening address to the nation that Ukraine had conveyed its proposals to the American side. He offered no details.
Zelensky said the United States could help strengthen Ukraine’s defense, first and foremost with air defense, and put pressure on Russia so that its plans are different, to prepare for an end to the war rather than prolonging it. Air defense first, pressure second: that has been the order of business in Kyiv for months, and it has grown more urgent as the fighting has worn on into its fifth year.
The timing matters. The war with Iran has pulled Washington’s attention away from Ukraine, and the peace talks that were meant to end the fighting have been largely stalled since the Middle East conflict broke out in February. The two Americans who carry messages between the capitals, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, have still not set foot in Kyiv; their last Moscow visit came in January. A plan handed to the Americans now is a way of putting Ukraine back on the table in Washington.
Russia’s position has not moved. Moscow repeats that it is open to a settlement, though only on terms that would require Ukraine to hand over the four regions it claims outright, plus what Moscow calls the root causes of the conflict. On those terms, a settlement is a surrender, and both sides know it.
The second part of Zelensky’s speech was the warning. Ukrainian intelligence, he said, has evidence that Russia will use its September parliamentary election, a vote he called an imitation, as a pretext for a new mobilization. He said Russia was preparing for mobilization in the autumn, immediately after the imitation of parliamentary elections, as part of a plan to create the appearance that Russians supposedly support the war. He described a new draft of hundreds of thousands of Russians before the year is out, and about as many again next year, on top of contract recruitment.
There are signs that point the same way. Russia’s Supreme Court barred Yabloko, the last registered party that openly opposes the war, from the ballot. A vote that cannot be contested is easier to use as cover. The pro-Kremlin parties are expected to keep their dominance in parliament either way. The Kremlin’s own hawks dispute the mobilization claim: Dmitry Medvedev, the former president, said last month that no new draft is needed because 200,000 volunteers signed up in the first six months of the year. Russian officials otherwise decline to discuss it.
Zelensky has made this warning before. He said earlier this year that Moscow would introduce a new mobilization, and the September election gives the Kremlin a convenient moment: call the vote, stage the show of support, then announce that the war requires more men.
The two messages arrive together. To Washington: here is our plan, read it. To everyone else: Moscow is planning not peace but another draft. The plan may be genuine and the warning propaganda; the two are not mutually exclusive, and both speeches serve the same purpose: to make the United States look at Ukraine again.
Kyiv’s arithmetic has not changed in four and a half years. It needs weapons to survive, and it needs Washington’s attention to get them. The proposals are on the table. Whether anyone in the American capital picks them up, with another war running, is the part Zelensky cannot control.
Sources: Al Jazeera, Reuters, The Straits Times, Kyiv Post