The United States hit seven Southeast Asian countries with a new wave of tariffs on Saturday. The day before, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stood in Manila and told ASEAN foreign ministers that Washington was “with ASEAN 100 percent.”
The gap between the message and the action is wide enough that analysts in the region have started calling it what it is: a credibility problem.
The new duties apply to Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar — a sweep that covers nearly every ASEAN economy. The stated rationale is to crack down on Chinese goods transshipped through Southeast Asia to avoid US tariffs on direct Chinese imports. But the effect is to punish the very countries the administration says it wants as partners in the Indo-Pacific.
A new wave of US tariffs that hit seven Southeast Asian countries is set to reinforce perceptions of Washington as an unreliable partner to the region, according to analysts.
Rubio’s “100 percent” line came during the ASEAN ministerial meetings in Manila, where he delivered the standard American pitch: the United States is a reliable partner, a security guarantor, and a long-term economic presence in the region. The tariff announcement that followed, which landed with no advance warning or consultation with ASEAN capitals, undercut the message before the diplomatic ink dried.
For ASEAN, the dynamic is familiar. Washington courts the region when it needs allies against China, then hits it with trade penalties when domestic politics demand protectionist gestures. The pattern has accelerated under Trump, whose first-term tariffs on Chinese goods were followed by a second-term expansion that now covers much of Southeast Asia as a byproduct of the anti-transshipment campaign.
The result is that China — which has its own aggressive trade practices — can present itself as the more predictable partner. Beijing offers ASEAN access to its market without sudden tariff shocks, and signs infrastructure deals that, whatever their strings, arrive on schedule. The US offers security commitments and trade penalties in the same week.
Analysts say the tariff wave will reinforce perceptions of Washington as an unreliable partner, particularly among ASEAN governments that are trying to balance deepening economic ties with China against their desire for a credible American counterweight. The message from the US is becoming hard to translate: “We want to be your partner — but we will also tax your exports without warning.”