The cease-fire agreement between the United States and Iran collapsed because the White House did not understand, or did not care, what it had signed, according to a former UN diplomat who argues that sloppy drafting by the Trump administration destroyed the best chance to end the war.
David Raikow, a former UN diplomat who served in Sudan, South Sudan, Libya and Afghanistan, writes in Foreign Policy that the Hormuz memorandum of understanding was a case study in diplomatic negligence.
“The White House blew up the Hormuz cease-fire agreement because it didn’t understand, or didn’t care, what it had agreed to,” Raikow writes. “The results will cast a long shadow over the strait.”
The core problem, he argues, is that in armed conflicts where trust between the parties is essentially zero, the text of an agreement is the only thing that matters. Every word, comma and clause carries weight because neither side will grant the other the benefit of the doubt.
“Detail and care matter in peacemaking, but not to this White House,” Raikow writes. “When it comes to peace and cease-fire agreements, details matter. The lack of trust or goodwill between the parties allows for almost no room for error or imprecision.”
The agreement was meant to stop the fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and create space for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the waterway. Instead, within weeks, both sides accused each other of violations, and the US resumed bombing.
The breakdown has consequences far beyond the immediate fighting. The strait carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies. Its closure has sent energy prices soaring, contributing to inflation that is now the dominant political issue in American politics.
Trump’s approach to the agreement fits a broader pattern. The president has shown little interest in the mechanics of diplomacy, preferring bold announcements and personal relationships over patient negotiation. Sitting next to Erdogan in Ankara, he announced he would lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey and consider selling F-35s, a move with sweeping implications for Russian arms sales across Asia, without apparent consideration of the legal or strategic consequences.
Raikow stresses that the signed text of an agreement is the only authoritative record of what was promised, and that careless drafting can undo months of painstaking negotiation. “Even if never brought before any judicial body, the signed text of an agreement is the only way to establish exactly what the parties actually agreed to,” he writes.
The collapse of the Hormuz cease-fire has left the war in a more dangerous phase than before. Both sides have resumed full-scale attacks. The US is now completing its seventh straight night of strikes, hitting bridges, energy infrastructure and water facilities in southern Iran. Tehran has responded with missiles and drones aimed at American bases across the Gulf.
Raikow’s warning applies beyond the Iran case. “When it comes to peace and cease-fire agreements, details matter,” he writes. The Trump administration treated a cease-fire as a piece of paper. Now the strait is closed, the bombs are falling, and the memorandum of understanding has become a memorandum of misunderstanding.