Donald Trump began his second term in January 2025 with a 52% approval rating. By mid-July 2026, that number has fallen to 36%. His net approval sits at minus 23 points. And the primary reason is the war he promised he would never start.
An Economist/YouGov poll published this week shows 59% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s overall job performance. On Iran specifically, just 31% approve of how he is handling the conflict, while 59% disapprove. The same survey found that only 28% of Americans believe the country is headed in the right direction. Sixty-one percent say it is on the wrong track.
The numbers among his own voters tell the story. The share of Republicans who disapprove of Trump’s job performance has risen to 21%, up from just 5% when he took office in January 2025. His approval among Republicans has dropped to 79%, down from 91%. Even among self-described MAGA voters, support is down five points. Among independents, Trump’s approval on Iran stands at 22%.
What is driving the damage is not complicated. The war has pushed gasoline prices past $4 a gallon. Brent crude has traded well above $100 a barrel. Inflation, which Trump promised to crush on Day One, remains the top concern for voters across both parties, 30% of Americans name it as the country’s most important issue. Trump’s approval on handling inflation sits at minus 43 points, his worst score of the entire term.
The economic fallout is not abstract. US gas prices climbed to an average of $3.99 per gallon after the strikes began, up more than a dollar in a month. Mortgage rates have risen. Food prices have climbed. A Marist poll found that just 33% of Americans approve of how Trump is handling the economy, his lowest economic approval since taking office. Seventy-seven percent said the economy is in bad shape.
The political consequences are becoming visible. Democratic candidates now poll four points higher than their Republican counterparts in generic ballot surveys. Forty-four percent of respondents favor Democratic control of the House, against 40% for Republicans. The midterm elections are months away, but the trajectory is clear: a president at 36% approval with a net negative 23 rating carries no coattails.
Trump has tried to change the subject. He delivered a speech on election integrity this week and has been holding campaign-style events. But the Economist/YouGov survey found that 60% of respondents believe Trump has not focused on the country’s most important problems.
The irony is that Trump sold himself to voters as a peacemaker. At his second inauguration, he said: “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into. My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker.” Fourteen months later, the United States is fighting a shooting war with Iran that has no end in sight, with Trump now considering expanding the strikes deeper into Iranian territory.
A brief ceasefire earlier this year produced a slight uptick, but it collapsed. The Economist/YouGov poll from mid-July shows his worst numbers since the Capitol riot at the end of his first term, when he hit 29%. The lowest approval for any modern president was Harry Truman at 22% in 1952. Trump is trending in that direction.
Wars have a way of consuming presidencies. Trump’s Iran war is consuming his.