Less than a month after hailing a ceasefire, Donald Trump resumed strikes on Iran, a move experts warn could prolong the war and inflict lasting damage on Republicans ahead of the November midterms.
“There’s basically no timeline in which this makes any sense for preserving [Republicans’] midterm performance,” one analyst told the Guardian.
The numbers bear this out. Trump’s approval rating sits at 36%, with a net negative of 23 points. On Iran specifically, just 31% of Americans approve of how he is handling the conflict, while 59% disapprove. The Economist/YouGov poll from mid-July shows his worst numbers since the Capitol riot.
The economic toll is doing the political damage. Gas prices are roughly $1.06 per liter ($4 a gallon). Inflation hit 3.8% in April, the highest in three years. A Marist poll found just 33% approve of Trump’s economic management. Seventy-seven percent say the economy is in bad shape.
Republican support is fracturing. The share of Republicans who disapprove of Trump has risen from 5% at the start of his term to 21% now. His approval among his own party has dropped from 91% to 79%. Among the independents who carried him to victory in 2024, his Iran approval stands at 22%.
Trump has insisted the political fallout does not concern him. “The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran, they can’t have a nuclear weapon,” he said at a cabinet meeting. “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody.” This is a remarkable statement from a president who entered office vowing to be a peacemaker.
Republican strategists are less cavalier. The war has created an impossible position for the party: support the president and own an unpopular conflict, or break with him and risk alienating the base. Most have chosen silence, hoping the war resolves before November.
But by resuming strikes after the ceasefire collapsed, Trump has ensured the war will be front and center through the summer. Democratic candidates lead by four points in generic ballot polling. The Cook Political Report notes that the race for House control has shifted in Democrats’ favor.
The Guardian’s analysis captures the core irony: Trump sold himself as the candidate who would end wars, not start them. Fourteen months into his second term, the United States is in its fifth month of combat operations against Iran, with Trump now weighing an even larger escalation, strikes on power plants, deeper nuclear site attacks, and bombing the underground facility at Pickaxe Mountain.
“There’s basically no timeline in which this makes any sense,” the analyst said. The midterms will show whether the voters agree.