TAIPEI , A new survey of Taiwanese voters reveals that Japan is now seen as a more reliable security partner than the United States in the event of a Chinese invasion, a striking shift in public opinion that could reshape the regional defense calculus.
The poll, conducted by National Chengchi University and Academia Sinica in April 2026 and published this week by Foreign Policy, surveyed 1,195 Taiwanese voters on their perceptions of Japan and the likelihood of Japanese military intervention in a cross-strait conflict.
The results challenge conventional assumptions about who Taiwan trusts.
Japan outranks the US
Taiwanese voters hold Japan in higher regard than the United States, which many increasingly see as less trustworthy under a Trump administration that has repeatedly questioned alliance commitments. Japan’s positive perception cuts across party lines, including among voters of the Kuomintang, the traditionally pro-China opposition party that might be expected to harbor anti-Japanese sentiment.
Among KMT voters, only 21.4 percent hold negative views of Japan, while 33.9 percent see Japan positively. The remaining 44.7 percent are neutral, a far cry from the hostile posture the party’s historical relationship with Japan might suggest.
“Even KMT voters do not have particularly negative feelings toward Japan,” the researchers noted. “Support for Japan is high, even across party lines.”
The Takaichi factor
The poll found a strong correlation between views of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and expectations of Japanese military aid. Among respondents with favorable views of Takaichi, 64 percent believe Japan is likely or very likely to come to Taiwan’s aid. Among those with negative views, only 20 percent hold that expectation.
Takaichi has made her position clear. In November 2025, she said a Chinese attack on Taiwan “could constitute a situation threatening Japan’s survival,” language that invokes Japan’s 2015 security laws, which permit the use of force in survival-threatening situations even when Japan is not under direct attack.
China reacted furiously. Foreign Minister Wang Yi called her remarks “shocking.” Beijing’s ambassador to the UN called them a “threat of force” violating international law. The Chinese consul general in Osaka threatened her with beheading.
Interconnected defenses
The survey found that Taiwanese voters who believe the United States will help defend Taiwan are also more likely to believe Japan will help, and vice versa. This suggests the public sees the US-Japan security alliance as a single deterrent framework. A conflict over Taiwan, in their view, is not a cross-strait dispute but a regional matter involving both Washington and Tokyo.
This perception creates political pressure on Japan. If a crisis erupted, Taiwanese public expectations of Japanese intervention could force Tokyo’s hand, regardless of what the Japanese government has privately promised.
A strained relationship at the elite level
The positive polling stands in tension with recent diplomatic friction. In April, Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai flew privately to Japan to watch a baseball game. The trip became a publicity controversy, and Japan felt “betrayed” by the stunt. Elite-level relations between the Lai administration and Tokyo have since cooled.
But the polling shows that civil society in Taiwan has moved well beyond the diplomatic dance. For ordinary Taiwanese, Japan is no longer just a trading partner or a tourist destination; it is a potential military ally they believe will show up.
Sources: Foreign Policy (July 7, 2026); Lev Nachman & Wei-Ting Yen survey, April 2026
Reviewed by the Babel editorial team