The probability of a very strong El Niño event has surged to 81%, according to NOAA’s latest ENSO diagnostic update issued on July 9, an 18-point jump from the 63% forecast just one month earlier. That single number, combined with unprecedented model agreement, has climatologists warning that the 2026-2027 El Niño could be the strongest since records began in the late 1800s.
**What the Numbers Say**
The July 9 update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the chance of a very strong El N