A week after the US and Iran signed a peace deal, the Strait of Hormuz is stirring back to life. Ships are transiting again. Tankers laden with Iranian crude are moving. But the numbers tell a story of caution, not celebration. Fewer than 172 vessels have crossed since the deal was signed on June 18, and the pre-war average of 138 per day remains a distant benchmark. More than 200 tankers are still waiting inside the strait, and for the 11,000 sailors stranded in the Gulf during months of conflict, a UN-led evacuation is only just beginning.
The human cost of the strait’s closure is enormous. The International Maritime Organization, the UN shipping agency, announced it will launch a large-scale operation to evacuate more than 11,000 seafarers who have been trapped aboard vessels in the Gulf since fighting erupted. IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said the agency has secured safety guarantees from Iran, Oman, the United States, and other coastal states to support the evacuations. Two temporary routes through the strait will be used, with vessels contacted individually for instructions. The IMO will issue daily reports on how many ships depart safely.
“After months of hardship and distress for thousands of innocent seafarers, and negative impact on the whole world, I welcome with deep satisfaction the peace agreement concluded between the United States and Iran,” Dominguez said.
The evacuation depends on the strait remaining open, and so far traffic has resumed only tentatively. Maritime intelligence firm Kpler recorded 42 ships crossing on Saturday alone, part of a total of 172 since the deal. That is a fraction of the pre-conflict volume. On the day the deal was signed, Iran had effectively closed the strait, sending global oil prices above $100 a barrel and choking off shipments of energy, fertilizer, and other commodities. Since then, Brent crude has dropped to its lowest level since the war began.
More than 200 tankers appear to be waiting inside the strait, according to BBC Verify ship-tracking data. At least 30 tankers have departed from the Gulf laden with Iranian oil and petrochemicals since the deal, and five previously sanctioned tankers carrying up to 4 million barrels moved through the strait on Monday. Four liquefied natural gas tankers were also spotted heading toward Qatar’s Ras Laffan port. Still, more than 250 tankers and 440 cargo ships remain inside the Gulf, most of them stationary or at anchor. Fewer than one in six is carrying cargo.
The shipping industry remains deeply cautious. War risk insurance premiums are running at 53 times normal rates. Vessel transit procedures are still uncertain, and Iran and the US are giving conflicting signals about who controls the waterway.
Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority published new terms last Friday declaring that no vessel may pass through the strait without a valid permit issued by the PGSA. The problem is that the PGSA is itself sanctioned by the United States, creating a legal dilemma for ship owners. So far, every observed transit has used the Iranian-approved northern route through Iranian waters, not the US-recommended southern route near Oman.
There are also active security concerns. The Joint Maritime Information Center, a multinational group that includes the United States, has warned ships to avoid the central part of the strait due to the presence of mines. Active mine clearance operations are underway, and the JMIC recommends a narrower southern route closer to the Omani coast that has been confirmed clear.
The picture is further complicated by mixed signals from Tehran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the strait closed again on Saturday in response to Israeli strikes on Lebanon, though traffic continued. Iran’s ambassador to the UN in Geneva separately said the strait is open. A military source told Iranian state media that daily transits would be capped.
Amid the uncertainty, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is on a tour of Gulf states to reassure allies about the deal. Speaking on Tuesday, Rubio delivered a clear warning: no country may impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s an international waterway,” he said. “No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That’s existing international law.”
Iran has been pushing to charge fees for passage through the strait. While the peace deal commits Iran to use its “best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days” and to work with Oman on future administration of the waterway, the long-term question of who controls the strait remains unresolved. For now, the narrow channel is open, but the trust to fill it has not yet returned.
The 11,000 sailors still waiting to be evacuated are a sobering reminder of what the war cost. The ships lining the Gulf, idled for months, will not move again at scale until the shipping industry is certain the strait will stay open. That certainty has not yet arrived.