Russia hammered Kyiv with ballistic missiles on Monday, killing at least 20 people and wounding scores more, in the deadliest strike on the Ukrainian capital this year. It came on the eve of the NATO summit in Ankara, where President Trump is expected to meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy for talks on ending the war.
The timing was not subtle. Russia wanted the world to see what Ukraine cannot stop.
Ukrainian air defenses shot down none of the 23 ballistic missiles fired in the attack. The country’s Soviet-era systems cannot handle ballistic projectiles, only American Patriot interceptors can, and Ukraine does not have enough of them. In July so far, Ukraine has intercepted just 4 of 49 Russian ballistic missiles. The other 45 hit their targets.
“As long as Patriot missiles sit in our allies’ stockpiles, Russia is only encouraged to keep destroying residential buildings,” Zelenskyy said. “The U.S. and Europe have the power to stop this terror.“
A high-rise in Kyiv was ripped open by the strikes. Rescuers spent Monday combing the rubble. An entire family, two parents and a child, was pulled out dead.
“We’re sitting here and waiting until they retrieve them,” said Alyona, 22, waiting for news of her missing friend Vika. “She’s so kind, only 19 years old.“
While Ukraine cannot stop the missiles hitting its capital, its own forces struck back at Russia’s energy infrastructure. Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s largest oil refinery in Omsk, more than 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles) from the front, and two “shadow fleet” vessels in the Sea of Azov. These long-range strikes are Ukraine’s main countermeasure: disrupt Russian logistics and make the war hurt at home.
Ankara at a crossroads
The NATO summit opening Tuesday in Ankara was already tense before Monday’s attack. Trump has spent the week calling NATO “ridiculous” and “not reciprocal,” and saying it is “ridiculous for the USA to continue along this one-sided path.” He will meet Zelenskyy on Wednesday, with a call to Putin to follow.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has been working to keep Trump inside the alliance. The summit declaration is expected to commit European allies to roughly 70 billion euros a year in military aid for Ukraine across 2026 and 2027, a “burden shifting” package designed to let Washington claim a win. Rutte has also trailed “tens of billions” in new defense contracts, many of them transatlantic.
But none of that helps Kyiv this week. European money takes months to translate into Patriot interceptors in Ukrainian hands. The missiles that could have stopped Monday’s attack are sitting in warehouses in Germany and the United States.
Ukraine has been pleading for more Patriots since last year. The Biden administration sent two batteries. A third was promised. It never arrived. Now, with Trump in office and questioning the entire alliance, the prospect of more American air defense is uncertain at best.
What the numbers say
The air force data for July is damning:
- 23 ballistic missiles fired at Kyiv on Monday
- 0 intercepted
- 4 of 49 ballistic missiles stopped all month
- 351 drones used by Russia in the same period
- Ukraine shot down over 90% of those
The drone interception rate is high because drones are slow and loud, any system can handle them. Ballistic missiles are different. They travel at several times the speed of sound and come in at a steep angle. Only the Patriot system has the radar and interceptor to stop them.
Ukraine needs at least seven Patriot batteries to cover its major cities, according to military analysts. It has two.
The NATO summit will produce statements, commitments, and photo opportunities. It will not produce the missiles Ukraine needs to protect its capital from the next salvo. Those are already manufactured. They are just not here.