Before dawn on Saturday, Russia sent 27 ballistic missiles at Ukraine, most of them at Kyiv. Nine people died, more than 30 were wounded, and Ukraine’s defenses brought down exactly one of the incoming weapons. Zelenskyy said only one ballistic missile was intercepted because there are no interceptors for the Patriot systems.
The Patriot, built by RTX, the company formerly called Raytheon, together with Lockheed Martin, is the one system Ukraine can rely on against ballistic missiles. The math is cruel: the two firms produce fewer than 1,000 interceptors a year at about $4 million apiece, and Russia and Iran are expending them faster than they roll off the line.
The stockpile is shrinking
The Washington think tank CSIS has quantified the decline. Before the Iran war began on February 28, the United States held more than 2,300 Patriot interceptors; by July the figure was roughly 800. An updated CSIS report released the same week put the loss near 65 percent, leaving as few as 759 of the most advanced Patriots in American hands. A US official told NPR the estimates appeared accurate. THAAD, the other premier interceptor, dropped from about 450 to about 250.
Production explains why the numbers stay low. CSIS counts 183 of the top Patriot variant built per year, with roughly three and a half years between contract and delivery. The Pentagon wants $67 billion in supplemental money, partly to refill the magazines.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth dismissed talk of a shortage as a manufactured story in June; two months earlier he had conceded that rebuilding the stockpiles would be measured in months and years.
The license that was offered, then pulled back
At the NATO summit in Turkey a month ago, Trump promised Zelenskyy a license to build Patriots in Ukraine. After their White House meeting last week, Zelenskyy went to Lockheed Martin to push the work forward. Last Friday, Trump pulled back, saying nothing had been agreed, only discussed, and describing the technology as too sensitive to hand over.
Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, a former Air Force general, still wants the license granted, arguing it would ease the very shortage the United States faces, and that White House policy makes Americans who support Ukraine look like a minority. Even with a license, production would take years: the parts pipeline is stretched, and only Germany and Japan have ever been licensed to make Patriots. THAAD has been shared with just two countries, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
No pledges yet
Zelenskyy is pressing other governments to send their Patriot missiles now, arguing that rounds held in reserve for imagined emergencies should be spent on stopping the Russian war. No government has yet made a public pledge.
The shortage reaches beyond Ukraine. Analysts note that empty magazines are visible to other capitals; Steve Ganyard, a retired Marine colonel and ABC News contributor, called the situation serious and slow to cure, and warned that a rival weighing a move in the Pacific could read the moment as an opening. Pacific Air Forces has started reviewing its exercises, accepting risk in one theater while the Middle East absorbs the priority.
The missile meant to shield half the world’s front lines is being built at peacetime speed. Two wars are emptying the shelves faster than industry can restock, and the countries that need the missiles most are fighting over the next batch.