One false argument can collapse an LLM’s accuracy to near zero, new study shows

A new preprint from researchers at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign shows how fragile a large language model’s grasp of the truth can be when someone argues with it. The authors demonstrate that a single targeted persuasive message, even one containing factually false claims, can flip a model’s answer away from the correct one, in some cases driving its accuracy to near zero.

The paper, posted to arXiv on August 12, formalizes what the authors call adversarial persuasion: an attack in which an agent trained to argue is optimized to flip a target model’s response within a single exchange. They frame the work as red-teaming research that complements jailbreak studies, which focus on bypassing safety rules rather than on ordinary conversational influence.

The persuader is optimized with reinforcement learning against a frozen target and rewarded only for flipping the target’s answer to a chosen wrong option. On the TruthfulQA benchmark, training lifted persuasion success against a Qwen-2.5-7B model from 24.3 percent to 93.7 percent, while the target’s accuracy collapsed from 66.2 percent to 1.8 percent, a 64.4-point drop. The persuaders generalize to models they never saw during training: 82.5 percent success against Qwen-14B and 79 percent against Llama-3.1-8B.

Stronger models resist more: GPT-4o-mini flipped 25 percent of the time on TruthfulQA and 16 percent on average across benchmarks, while GPT-5-mini was the toughest target at 3 percent. A curriculum approach, first practicing against more persuadable open-weight models and then targeting the harder one, pushed GPT-4o-mini’s failure rate from 24.6 percent to 37.9 percent. Even an adapter explicitly tuned to resist persuasion, which the authors call PBT-8B, still fell for the arguments 60 percent of the time.

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Rather than jailbreaks or adversarial prefixes, the trained persuaders use the moves of ordinary human argument: conceding the target’s evidence, injecting false details, appealing vaguely to studies, and reframing the question. Over time the optimized agents converge on credibility-based deception, fabricating citations and authoritative-sounding evidence. One example in the paper shows a Qwen model correctly answering an MMLU question about compounds that affect DNA, then being talked into a wrong single answer through exactly these moves.

The authors argue that persuasion robustness should be treated as a core safety criterion for any system where models debate, advise or make decisions with humans or other models. Prior work supports the concern: a 2024 ACL paper showed LLMs’ correct beliefs can be manipulated by persuasive strategies, a 2025 EMNLP study found LLM judges could be talked into inflating scores for wrong answers, and separate 2026 research on multi-agent debate found a single adversarial agent could cut a system’s overall accuracy by 10 to 40 percent. The code and data from the new paper are public on GitHub.

Sources: Learning to Persuade Exposes How Easily LLMs Abandon Correct Beliefs (arXiv, Aug 2026); Full text (HTML) (arXiv, Aug 2026); Investigating LLMs’ Belief towards Misinformation via Persuasion (ACL 2024); Can You Trick the Grader? Adversarial Persuasion of LLM-as-a-Judge (Findings of EMNLP 2025)

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