Japan Sets Sights on 30 Launches a Year as Government Bets Big on Domestic Space Access
Featured image: JAXA H3 rocket launching from Tanegashima Space Center; credit: JAXA/MHI
The Japanese government has set an ambitious goal of 30 domestic rocket launches per year by the early 2030s, a roughly 10-fold increase over the current pace, as part of a broader push to secure independent access to space for national security, mega-constellation deployments, and lunar exploration.
Jun Kazeki, Director-General of the National Space Policy Secretariat, laid out the target in comments reported by SpaceNews on July 15, alongside plans to increase the share of Japanese satellites launched on domestic rockets from approximately 50 to 60 percent currently to 60 or 70 percent. The strategy involves the government acting as an anchor tenant for commercial launch services, codifying launch demand for five to eight years to justify supply chain investment, and pursuing deregulation of licensing processes.
The Launch Gap
Japan’s current launch pace tells a stark story. Only two launches have taken place in 2026 year to date, following just three in all of 2025. To reach 30 per year within roughly five years, Japan would need to add the equivalent of an entirely new launch industry.
Every vehicle in Japan’s lineup faces headwinds:
The H3 rocket, built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries for JAXA, is Japan’s flagship liquid-fueled launcher. It returned to flight successfully on June 12, 2026, after a December 2025 failure that lost a navigation satellite. The June flight carried a new variant called the HE-30S in a liquid-only configuration. But the H3’s track record remains rocky: its maiden flight in March 2023 also failed, giving it roughly a 67 percent success rate through six flights.
The Epsilon S, a solid-fuel small rocket developed by JAXA, is delayed indefinitely after a devastating ground test explosion in November 2024 destroyed the second stage motor, followed by two additional failed engine tests. JAXA’s RAISE-4 technology demonstration satellite was moved to a Rocket Lab Electron launch instead.
Space One’s Kairos solid-fuel rocket has failed all three of its launch attempts. The first self-destructed five seconds after liftoff in March 2024. The second was terminated about 10 minutes into flight in December 2024. The third, in March 2026, failed to reach orbit. Space One, backed by Canon Electronics, IHI Aerospace, and Shimizu Corporation, has yet to achieve Japan’s first commercial orbital launch.
New Players and Infrastructure
Interstellar Technologies, the first Japanese company to reach space with a suborbital flight in 2019, is developing the ZERO orbital rocket (roughly 100 kilograms to LEO) with investment from Toyota. The maiden orbital flight is projected for approximately December 2027.
Honda has conducted surprise reusable rocket experiments, though concrete commercial plans remain unclear.
On the infrastructure side, Hokkaido Spaceport is positioning itself as an alternative to capacity-constrained US ranges. It has signed a feasibility study with US company Firefly Aerospace to launch the Alpha rocket from Japan, and Space Cotan is building additional launch infrastructure on the northern island.
Why It Matters
Japan’s push for domestic launch capability is driven by several converging pressures. Strategic autonomy demands that national security satellites are not dependent on foreign launchers. The defense ministry has already signed contracts with Space One for dozens of security satellites.
Economically, the government targets an 8 trillion yen (approximately $52 billion) space industry, with Japan seeking to position itself as Asia’s space transportation hub. International contracts are starting to flow: Eutelsat booked multiple H3 launches from 2027, and the UAE asteroid mission is manifested on H3 for 2028.
But Japan also competes with the cheapest and most reliable launch services on Earth. Japanese satellites increasingly ride Falcon 9 rideshares or Rocket Lab Electrons. Without a demonstrated domestic vehicle that can match international price and reliability, the 30-launch target risks remaining aspirational. The government’s anchor-tenant model is designed to bridge that gap, but it requires vehicles that can actually fly, a condition that no Japanese commercial rocket has yet met.