Iran’s Revolutionary Guards fired at least two missiles at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, according to two US officials cited by Axios. Two vessels suffered significant damage. There were no casualties reported.
The attack ends a brief lull in maritime strikes and comes as indirect US-Iran talks ended last week without public signs of progress toward a lasting peace. A 60-day ceasefire, intended to create space for diplomacy after the US-Israeli strikes that triggered the war, is still technically in effect but appears increasingly hollow.
Separately, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that a tanker was struck on its port side by an unknown projectile early Tuesday, about eight nautical miles east of Oman’s Limah. The vessel caught fire. No casualties or environmental impact were reported.
It is not yet clear whether the tanker in the UKMTO report is one of the two ships cited by US officials.
The threat is explicit
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned ships via maritime radio over the weekend that “our missiles and drones are ready to fire at you,” the Wall Street Journal reported, quoting from a recording it obtained.
One of the vessels under attack appeared to be Al Rekayyat, a liquefied natural gas tanker owned by Nakilat, the Qatari state shipping company. The ship was hit on the port side at the top of the engine room. The engine room was on fire and filled with smoke, according to the WSJ, which quoted radio traffic from the scene. All crew were safe and mustered on the starboard side.
The vessel was at the mouth of the strait, in the Gulf of Oman, when it was hit.
The stakes
The Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of global oil consumption. It is the primary export route for Gulf oil producers. Any sustained disruption sends shockwaves through energy markets, which is exactly why Iran has used it as a strategic lever throughout its conflict with the United States and its allies.
Commercial vessels have been under intermittent attack since the war began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran earlier this year. An interim agreement included safe-passage provisions. Those provisions are now being ignored.
President Trump said on Monday the US would either reach a deal with Iran or “finish the job,” renewing his threat of military action. That statement came as Iran held mass funerals for former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose body arrived in Qom this week in a procession designed to project defiance and national unity.
What comes next
Attacks on commercial shipping in the strait are a red line for the global economy. Insurers are already raising premiums for vessels transiting the Gulf of Oman. Major carriers have restricted bookings through the region. If the attacks continue or intensify, the economic pressure on both Iran and its adversaries will mount, but Iran has shown it is willing to absorb significant pain to maintain its leverage.
The UKMTO advisory offers the most sobering data point: a commercial tanker in international waters, hit by a projectile, burning, with no one able to say for certain who fired the missile.