Climate change is already costing global agriculture more than $20 billion per year in lost crop production, and the bill is projected to rise eightfold by the end of the century, according to a new statistical analysis presented at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly in May 2026.
The study, by Yi-Ling Hwong (IIASA, Austria), Corey Lesk (Dartmouth College), and Kai Kornhuber (IIASA/Columbia University), analyzes the financial toll of climate-induced heat and drought on the world’s three most important staple crops, maize, wheat, and soybeans.
What the data show
Using a baseline period of 1974–2004 to establish the statistical relationship between climate extremes and yields, the researchers estimated losses for 2007–2019. Across all three crops, yields declined by 3.5% relative to the baseline, translating to approximately $20 billion per year in lost production value.
The regional picture reveals a striking inequity. Least-developed countries (LDCs) experienced a 4.9% yield decline over the longer 2000–2019 period, while developing countries lost 5.3% and developed countries lost 6.3%. By absolute financial losses, China leads at $91.3 billion total (2000–2019), followed by Brazil at $59.1 billion. But when measured as a share of GDP, the burden falls hardest on African nations, Malawi, Mozambique, and Tanzania, where losses represent 0.13% to 1.26% of GDP, roughly 2.5 times the relative burden on developed nations.
“Over 60% of the population is employed in agriculture in least-developed countries, compared to 3% in France,” noted Hwong. Crop failures in these regions threaten livelihoods directly and can trigger social unrest and increased migration.
Projections to 2100
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0), annual losses are projected to quadruple by 2070 to approximately $80 billion, and rise eightfold to $161 billion by 2100, equivalent to roughly 855 million metric tons of production per year, the annual food consumption of approximately 2 billion people.
Under a sustainable pathway (SSP1-2.6), about $40 billion per year in losses could be avoided by 2100 compared to the business-as-usual trajectory.
Some adaptation, such as changing crop varieties, shifting planting dates, and expanding irrigation where water is available, was factored into the projections. But the authors caution that adaptation alone cannot offset the scale of losses under high-emissions futures.
Study status
The research has been submitted to the journal Earth’s Future (AGU) as a preprint (DOI: 10.22541/essoar.176460475.54198904/v1) and presented at EGU General Assembly 2026 (DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8148). It has not yet completed peer review.
Disclosure: Based on a preprint submitted to Earth’s Future and a conference presentation at EGU General Assembly 2026, not yet peer-reviewed.
Sources:
1. Hwong YL, Lesk C, Kornhuber K. “The Financial Toll of Climate-Induced Crop Losses.” ESS Open Archive preprint. DOI: 10.22541/essoar.176460475.54198904/v1
2. Hwong YL, Lesk C, Kornhuber K. EGU General Assembly 2026. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu26-8148
3. Reported in New Scientist. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2533593-global-warming-already-causing-crop-losses-of-over-20-billion-a-year/