The war in Gaza has become the defining issue in America’s midterm elections, cleaving the Democratic Party in two as progressives and moderates fight for control of the party’s future.
Nowhere is the split more visible than in Michigan, where a bitter Senate primary is forcing Democratic candidates to choose sides. The state has a large Arab-American population, concentrated in Dearborn, and a progressive wing that has turned opposition to Israel’s war into a litmus test for the party’s soul.
The divide is simple but unbridgeable. On one side are candidates who argue that unconditional US support for Israel’s bombardment of Gaza is morally indefensible and politically suicidal, especially after losing Arab-American voters in 2024. On the other are incumbents backed by AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby, who insist that the party must not abandon its traditional ally.
The numbers tell the story. The Gaza war created gaping divisions in the Democratic Party and contributed to a resounding loss in the 2024 presidential election. Trump won Michigan, a state Democrats had held since 2016 in presidential races, in part because Arab-American and young voters stayed home or voted third party over Gaza.
Yet the lesson the party draws from that loss depends on who you ask. Progressives say the answer is to break with Israel. Moderates say the answer is to avoid alienating Jewish voters and centrists.
The split has concrete consequences. AIPAC has poured millions into Democratic primaries to defeat candidates who criticize Israel. In response, groups like Justice Democrats and Track AIPAC are backing more than 100 anti-war candidates nationwide. House Minority Whip Katherine Clark referred to Israel’s actions in Gaza as “genocide,” then walked it back, and kept her AIPAC endorsement anyway.
Senate votes on blocking offensive weapons sales to Israel have steadily picked up Democratic support as the war grinds on. But the party remains divided on whether to actually restrict arms.
For Republicans, the Democratic infighting is a gift. The GOP has rallied around Israel and Trump, who has shown no hesitation in bombing Iran while embracing Israeli policy. The presumptive Republican nominee in the Michigan Senate race, former Representative Mike Rogers, has Trump’s endorsement and is happy to watch Democrats tear each other apart.
“As angry as people are at Donald Trump and at Republicans, they seem to be angrier at Democrats,” one Democratic strategist said.
The midterms will test whether the party can hold together, or whether the war in Gaza will prove as decisive in 2026 as it was in 2024.