Fictitious disarmament: why Netanyahu rejected Trump’s Gaza plan

The word Netanyahu chose was fictitious. Addressing his cabinet on Sunday, the Israeli prime minister rejected the US Board of Peace plan for Gaza in plain terms, saying that what was at stake was real disarmament, not fictitious disarmament. The document is the 15-point plan at the heart of President Donald Trump’s Gaza initiative, endorsed by Hamas in late July. Israel’s answer to the ally that built it was no.

The plan’s logic was simple on paper. Hamas would hand over its weapons to a Palestinian governing authority in formation, and Israel would begin pulling its forces out in tandem with the disarmament. It was designed to give everyone a way forward: Hamas gets a process, the Palestinians get an authority, Israel gets the weapons, and Trump gets the deal. That was the design. What the plan did not anticipate was that the man who had to accept it would decide that the word fictitious was a better political product.

Netanyahu did not leave room for interpretation. He said Israel rejected the 15-point document and that the military would not carry out any withdrawal until Hamas was genuinely disarmed and would continue to thwart threats against its forces and its citizens. That is a demand Israel gets to define, with no outside referee, and the rejection follows a week and more of mounting criticism of the plan in Jerusalem.

The rejection is harder for Washington because the plan had already bent toward Israel once. After Netanyahu met the Board of Peace’s principals last week, the body backtracked on its own design: Israel, the body said, would pull out only after complete disarmament. The softening changed nothing. Netanyahu stood his ground at the cabinet table and said Israel was still talking with Washington about its objections, adding that Washington had ideas, some of them acceptable to Israel and some not, and that Israel knew how to stand its ground on these matters.

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Read the politics behind the word. Netanyahu faces elections, and the polls put him in a tight race. His far-right allies, the base that keeps his coalition alive, have been pressing for a new cabinet vote to kill the Gaza plan outright. A prime minister who accepted a US design for phased withdrawal and weapons handovers would hand his own coalition the rope to hang him. Rejecting it, loudly, in the language of national security, is the safe move. The word fictitious is aimed as much at his own right wing as at the plan. For a leader in a tight race, the plan is a liability and the rejection is a credential: it says the man who signed nothing is still the man who decides.

Here is the contradiction the plan cannot escape: the people who built the Board of Peace say themselves that full disarmament of Hamas is not realistically achievable. Which means Israel’s demand is a demand for something everyone involved knows cannot happen. That is exactly why it is safe for Netanyahu to make it. A goal that can never be met can never be held against him.

Trump’s plan gave Israel cover and gave Hamas a process. Netanyahu has kept the cover and refused the process. The 15-point document is not dead; it sits in the hands of a man who has decided that saying no to it costs him less than saying yes. That is the pattern of this alliance: Israel accepts American protection and refuses American terms, and the closer the ally, the easier the refusal. The Board of Peace was supposed to be the moment the two men’s interests finally lined up. Sunday was the reminder that they never quite do.

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