Andrius Kubilius, the European Commissioner for Defence and Space, has put into words what many European defense officials have been thinking for months but rarely say out loud: Europe now needs Ukraine more than Ukraine needs Europe.
Kubilius told Foreign Policy that Europe had been looking at how to support Ukraine and was now looking at how Ukraine could support Europe.
The reversal is driven by two shifts that are reshaping European security. First, the United States is reducing its military commitment to Europe under what is being called NATO 3.0, redirecting resources to the Indo-Pacific to counter China. Second, the war in Ukraine has proven that the future of warfare belongs to drones and autonomous systems, and Europe is not ready.
Kubilius described Europe’s defense challenge as one not seen in 100 years. The EU has committed $68 billion to Ukraine’s defense industries and $170 billion in defense loans to its own members. But the question is no longer just about money. It is about strategy.
The drone revolution is the most urgent issue. Ukraine built a drone army from scratch during the war, innovating at a pace that traditional European defense industries cannot match. Kubilius warned that drone technology was becoming obsolete in two months’ time, which means stockpiling is pointless. The solution, he said, was to maintain manufacturing surge capacity, keep components ready, and have trained operators on call.
Kubilius said that Europe must avoid being arrested by traditional industries’ interests, a dig at European defense contractors whose business models depend on building expensive, long-development systems that take years to field.
The biggest threat, according to Kubilius, is Russia’s capability to deploy 10 million drones per year. Europe has no equivalent industrial capacity.
On procurement, Kubilius highlighted a transatlantic imbalance: Europe buys 40 percent of its weapons from the United States, while the US buys only 1 to 2 percent of its weapons from Europe. He said he wanted reciprocity.
The FREYJA project, a European-Ukrainian coalition to build a cheaper, quicker alternative to the Patriot missile defense system, offers a glimpse of what this new model looks like. It uses open architecture, meaning radars can come from different producers. Ukrainian developers produce the missiles; European partners provide radars and seekers.
Kubilius also called on the US to clarify exactly what forces and weapons it will withdraw from Europe under NATO 3.0, so Europeans can fill the gaps. He said Europe needed to be ready.