The physics of flight is simple: wings generate lift by pushing air downward, and the amount of lift depends on air density. Hot air is thinner than cold air. As global temperatures rise, the margin of safety for aircraft takeoff is shrinking, and some of the world’s busiest airports are feeling the squeeze.
The underlying science is well established. A 2017 study by researchers at Columbia University and NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, published in Climatic Change, modeled the effects of rising temperatures on aircraft takeoff performance at 19 major airports worldwide. The results showed that by mid-to-late century, weight restrictions on hot days could affect 10 to 30 percent of flights departing at daily maximum temperatures, with payload reductions of up to 4 percent on the hottest days.
What happens when it gets too hot
When air temperature rises at constant pressure, air density drops. An aircraft wing at a given airspeed generates less lift, and jet engines ingest less air mass for combustion, producing less thrust. To compensate, aircraft need either longer runways to reach higher takeoff speeds or reduced takeoff weight, meaning fewer passengers, less cargo, or less fuel.
Above certain thresholds, even weight reduction is not enough. The Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 families have maximum operating temperatures around 49 to 52 degrees Celsius (120-125 Fahrenheit). In June 2017, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport grounded more than 40 flights when temperatures reached 49 degrees Celsius.
For the Columbia study’s lead author, Ethan Coffel, the problem is not just about extreme temperatures that already occur. It is about the increasing frequency of days that exceed historical annual maximums. Under business-as-usual emissions scenarios, the study projected that airports could see 10 to 50 additional days per year above their historical maximum temperatures by 2060 to 2080.
Who is most at risk
The impact varies significantly by airport, aircraft type, and runway length. The most vulnerable airports combine hot climates with short runways or high elevation.
New York’s LaGuardia Airport, with its notoriously short runways, could see a Boeing 737-800 near maximum takeoff weight requiring weight restrictions roughly half the time on hot days in the future. Dubai, where summer temperatures already regularly exceed 45 degrees Celsius, could see Boeing 777-300 flights weight-restricted more than half the time at daily maximum temperatures. Denver International Airport, elevated more than 1,600 meters (5,400 feet) above sea level, faces the double disadvantage of thin air from altitude compounded by higher temperatures.
Aircraft with the longest range and heaviest payloads are disproportionately affected. The Boeing 777-300 and 787-8 could see 30 to 40 percent of near-maximum-weight flights affected under future warming, with capacity reductions of 3 to 5 percent. The Airbus A380 is minimally affected, only because it operates from long runways by design.
Airports in cooler climates with long runways, London Heathrow, Paris Charles de Gaulle, New York’s JFK, would see the least impact.
Two futures
The Columbia study modeled two emissions pathways. Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), the projected increase in annual maximum temperatures at airports is 4 to 8 degrees Celsius, and the mean weight restriction on affected flights reaches up to 4 percent. Under a scenario with sharp emissions cuts (RCP 4.5), the increase is smaller and weight restrictions are as low as 0.5 percent.
The difference represents a choice. The same emissions trajectory that determines whether coastal airports will need sea walls also determines how often flights will be grounded by heat.
Sources
- Coffel, E.D., Thompson, T.R., Horton, R.M. “The impacts of rising temperatures on aircraft takeoff performance.” Climatic Change (2017). DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2018-9
- BBC News: “Too hot to fly: airports at risk from climate change” (July 17, 2026)