The ceasefire between the United States and Iran lasted 22 days. What killed it was a disagreement over who controls the Strait of Hormuz, a dispute written into the June 17 memorandum of understanding in language so vague that both sides could claim it meant whatever they wanted.
The MoU, signed after weeks of shuttle diplomacy, was supposed to freeze the conflict. It did not. Instead, it kicked the hardest question down the road: does Iran have the right to regulate traffic through the strait, or is it an open international waterway under maritime law?
The United States says the strait is a toll-free corridor. Iran says it controls its territorial waters and has the right to levy transit fees. The MoU used ambiguous formulations that allowed both positions to stand. Analysts describe the document’s language on Hormuz as the fatal ambiguity that made the next round of fighting inevitable.
On July 7, the ambiguity became a crisis. Three commercial tankers were attacked within 24 hours in the strait, a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker, the Wedyan, and a Qatari LNG carrier, the Al-Rekayyat, among them. The US, Qatar and Saudi Arabia blamed Iran. Qatar’s foreign ministry called it “unacceptable.”
Washington did not wait for an investigation. The US military struck more than 80 targets inside Iran. The Treasury Department revoked the temporary sanctions waiver that had permitted Iranian oil sales, roughly 1.6 million barrels per day, most of it going to China, and gave Iran until July 17 to conclude all transactions.
Trump declared the ceasefire “over.”
Iran retaliated by launching strikes toward Bahrain and Kuwait, triggering missile alerts in both countries. Tehran’s foreign ministry called the US strikes and the revocation of the oil waiver a breach of the framework agreement and warned of a “crushing response.”
Oil prices reacted immediately. Brent crude jumped above $76 a barrel, reversing a decline that had brought prices near pre-war levels. The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply. Every attack on a tanker is a reminder of how fragile that supply chain is.
The timing was particularly charged. Iran was in the middle of mourning ceremonies for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed on February 28 at the outset of the war. Helicopter footage showed vast crowds in Qom, many of them calling for retribution.
The collapse of the ceasefire leaves the region in a familiar but dangerous place: both sides striking each other, no diplomatic process in motion, and a waterway that the global economy depends on turning into a battlefield. The MoU was supposed to prevent this. But it was written to postpone the hardest question, and that question has now answered itself.