Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that the coming months will be decisive for Poland’s security, as concerns grow that Russia could test NATO’s resolve on the alliance’s eastern flank. Speaking after media reports of a planned Russian attack against a NATO member, Tusk said Poland is preparing for “various” scenarios and urged political unity at home.
“This is something really serious. I’m talking about short-term perspectives, rather months than years,” Tusk said in earlier comments, referring to the potential for a Russian strike against the alliance.
The warning is not new from Tusk. He has been sounding the alarm since early 2024, when he said Europe was living in a “pre-war era” and called the next two years the most critical since the end of the Second World War. But the tone has grown more urgent as Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on and the reliability of US security guarantees comes into question.
Tusk has also questioned whether the alliance would respond decisively if a member were attacked. “For the whole eastern flank, my neighbors, the question is if NATO is still an organization ready, politically and also logistically, to react, for example against Russia if they try to attack,” he said in an interview earlier this year. He stressed he was not undermining Article 5 but rather highlighting the need for practical preparedness.
The Polish government has pointed to specific incidents to justify its concern. Last year, roughly 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace. Tusk said it was not easy to convince NATO partners that the incursion was a deliberate provocation, not a random incident. “For some of our colleagues, it was much easier to pretend that nothing happened,” he said.
Poland has been one of NATO’s most active members on defense spending, allocating more than 4 percent of GDP to its military, among the highest in the alliance. It has also been a key transit hub for Western weapons flowing into Ukraine and has hosted a growing number of NATO troops on its soil. The country has been investing heavily in its own defense industry, purchasing Abrams tanks from the United States, K239 Chunmoo rocket systems from South Korea, and Patriot air defense batteries.
But the question that hangs over Tusk’s warnings is whether NATO’s eastern flank can count on the United States in a crisis. The Trump administration has made clear it wants European allies to take primary responsibility for their own defense, and the US has been reducing its military footprint in Europe. This has left countries like Poland, which share a border with Russian ally Belarus and a short border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, wondering whether the American security guarantee still holds.
Tusk’s call for domestic political unity reflects the strain of preparing for a potential conflict while managing the day-to-day pressures of governance. He has urged an end to political infighting and has called for all parties to support the military, border services, and Poland’s alignment with the EU and NATO. He has also warned against the rise of pro-Russian disinformation within Poland, urging citizens to recognize it as a weapon aimed at dividing the country before any physical attack comes.
The critical months ahead, as Tusk describes them, may determine not just Poland’s security but the credibility of NATO’s eastern defenses as a whole. If the alliance’s most exposed member does not feel protected, no amount of summit statements will change that.