Published: June 07, 2026, 06:57 UTC
Armenia voted on Sunday in a parliamentary election that will decide whether the country continues its slow pivot toward Europe or falls back into the orbit of a Kremlin that has spent weeks applying economic pressure and warning of a “Ukrainian scenario” if the pro-Western government wins.
Polls opened at 8 a.m. local time across the South Caucasus nation of three million people. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has held power since the 2018 Velvet Revolution, faces the toughest test of his political career. His Civil Contract party leads with about 32 percent support in the latest International Republican Institute polling, but roughly 40 percent of voters say they trust no political figure at all. The opposition is fragmented but determined, united mainly by resentment over Pashinyan’s concessions to Azerbaijan.
At stake is nothing less than the country’s geopolitical identity.
The Pashinyan gamble
Since taking office, Pashinyan has steered Armenia steadily away from Moscow. He passed legislation to begin the process of joining the European Union, accelerated a US-brokered peace deal with neighboring Azerbaijan, and hosted a major summit of EU leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Yerevan earlier this year. His efforts won him an endorsement from Donald Trump, whose administration brokered the peace terms with Baku.
But Pashinyan’s domestic support has eroded sharply — from 54 percent in 2021 to around 30 percent today. The primary reason is Nagorno-Karabakh, the ethnic Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan that Baku retook by force in 2023, displacing 100,000 people. Pashinyan’s critics have never forgiven him for what they see as surrender: making concessions in the peace process, refusing to campaign for the release of jailed Karabakh leaders, and abandoning a territory that many Armenians considered their historic homeland.
The peace deal with Azerbaijan remains deeply divisive. One recent poll found 44 percent of the public in support and 41 percent opposed — a country split almost exactly in half.
Russia’s economic weapon
Over the campaign loomed Moscow. Last month, Vladimir Putin listed the economic benefits Armenia would lose by moving west and pointedly noted that “the crisis in Ukraine began with efforts to move toward EU accession.” The warning was not rhetorical.
In the two weeks before the election, Russia banned imports of Armenian flowers, mineral water, cognac, fresh vegetables, and fruit — all significant export categories. Russia is Armenia’s largest trading partner, accounting for 36 percent of its foreign trade in 2025. Moscow supplies natural gas at $177.50 per 1,000 cubic meters, while European spot prices exceed $600.
“Russia is trying to somehow impact the final results of voting,” said Haykaz Fanyan of the Armenian Centre for Socio-Economic Studies. “The only way Russia can impact Armenia now is economic.”
Armenia’s military dependence on Russia has shrunk dramatically: about 95 percent of its military imports now come from India, France, China, and other countries. But the economic leverage remains substantial, and Moscow is using it openly.
The EU has responded. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged 50 million euros for Armenia on Thursday, accusing Moscow of “weaponizing economic relations for political pressure,” and said Brussels would ease trade for goods targeted by Russian bans.
Who is running against him
Pashinyan’s main challenger is Samvel Karapetyan, a billionaire who made his fortune in Russia. Karapetyan is under house arrest, accused of plotting to overthrow the government, and is conducting his campaign through his nephew. The Armenia Alliance, led by former President Robert Kocharyan, and former President Serzh Sargsyan’s Republican Party, which is not fielding candidates but urging supporters to vote against the incumbent, make up the rest of the opposition.
The analysts’ consensus is that if the opposition united they could match Pashinyan’s vote share, but divided they cannot beat him.
The costs of choice
Pashinyan has campaigned under the slogan “Stand for Peace” and on his doctrine of “Real Armenia” — a country at peace with its neighbors and integrated into Europe, rather than one defined by territorial ambition and dependence on Moscow. But the campaign has been tense, marked by confrontations with displaced Karabakh Armenians and accusations from opposition figures that Pashinyan is using state resources to pressure voters.
For ordinary Armenians, the question is harder than any geopolitical framing: are they willing to bear the economic costs of a European future that is still distant, while Russia ensures those costs are felt today? Sunday’s vote provides the answer.