Europe’s Next Security Challenge Is in Orbit
Date: 2026-06-28
Featured image: [Artist’s representation of objects in low Earth orbit and geostationary orbit, illustrating the congestion and complexity of the space environment; credit: ESA]
Across the European Union, satellite navigation alone underpins more than 10 percent of GDP. In the United Kingdom, space-based activity accounts for approximately 18 percent of the entire economy. France’s space sector generated 10.8 billion euros ($12.3 billion) in turnover and supported 33,200 jobs in 2020.
These figures illustrate a fundamental vulnerability: modern European civilization depends on space-based infrastructure that remains largely undefended. An op-ed published by SpaceNews on June 26, written by Kammy Brun, managing director of Simera Sense France, argues that Europe faces a rapidly closing window to secure its orbital assets before a crisis exposes the gap between dependency and capability.
“It doesn’t take too much imagination to picture the chaos that might ensue should a strategically crucial European satellite or group of satellites be harmed,” Brun writes. “Space systems form the enabling network of much of modern life.”
The Attribution Problem
The central difficulty facing European space defense is what analysts call the attribution problem. Orbit remains a shared domain with voluntary traffic coordination. When a satellite fails, it is nearly impossible to determine whether the cause was a technical malfunction, an accidental collision with debris, or a deliberate attack.
Russia has exploited this ambiguity, pursuing what Brun describes as “grey-zone aggression” against Europe that falls below the threshold that would trigger open war. French President Emmanuel Macron warned in November 2025 that Russia has engaged in “mass jamming of GPS signals and cyberattacks against space infrastructure,” and cited a “particularly shocking Russian threat of nuclear weapons in space.”
China, meanwhile, is building the infrastructure needed to become a military space superpower. Its Guowang megaconstellation: nearly 13,000 satellites requested from the International Telecommunications Union, exceeding even Starlink’s authorized total, represents both a commercial and a strategic capability. China’s People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force maintains dedicated space situational awareness (SSA) infrastructure that can “search, track, and characterize satellites in all Earth orbits,” according to open-source analysis.
The Gap: Space-Based Surveillance
Europe’s SSA capabilities are ground-based and limited. The EU Space Surveillance and Tracking program, established in 2014, now involves 15 member states and provides collision avoidance, re-entry analysis, and fragmentation detection services to more than 400 organizations. It secures over 600 satellites. But it operates from the ground, with all the limitations that implies.
Ground-based sensors cannot track objects at every orbital altitude simultaneously. They are exposed to weather. They observe only when the target is above the local horizon. A space-based SSA (SB-SSA) system (cameras and sensors deployed on satellites) would provide continuous coverage, operate extraterritorially, and detect objects as small as centimeters across from up to 10 kilometers away.
The global SSA market is projected to reach $61 billion over the next decade. Europe holds 27.7 percent of the market share, second only to the United States at 42.4 percent. But without a dedicated European SB-SSA constellation, the continent is dependent on US and allied assets for the highest-fidelity orbital surveillance.
“We cannot defend ourselves against what we cannot see,” Brun writes. “We cannot hope to plan sensibly for space defense if we are unsure, exactly, of the threats we face in orbit.”
National Efforts Take Shape
France has moved fastest. Its Space Command in Toulouse achieved initial operational capability in November 2025, backed by an additional 4.2 billion euros ($4.9 billion) in military space funding for the 2026-2030 period. The ARES program encompasses patrol satellites planned for launch in 2027, the FLAMHE laser system for blinding threatening satellites, and expanded jamming and electronic warfare capabilities.
Macron’s November 2025 speech in Toulouse was blunt: “Space is no longer a sanctuary, it has become a battlefield.” He also warned against strategic dependency: “Depending on a major third-party power or any space magnate is out of the question.”
Germany’s SSA market is estimated at $60 million and France’s at $40 million in 2025. The Franco-German JEWEL (Joint Early Warning for European Lookout) missile early warning initiative, announced in October 2025, represents a step toward shared European capability. The same month, Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales signed a milestone agreement to create a joint space entity.
The European Defense Fund has been tapped to foster commercial SSA innovation, and Pascal Faucher, chairman of the EU SST Partnership, noted in March 2025 that “we decided to foster and really accelerate innovation and foster competitiveness of the European industry and startups in the SSA domain.”
Procurement Reform as a Security Imperative
Brun identifies a structural obstacle: Europe’s habit of backing national champions and using past performance to predict future needs. The result is that agile, innovative small and medium enterprises find it nearly impossible to compete for defense contracts, even when their technology is superior.
“Europe must prioritize SSA by getting sustained and generous funding to manufacturers and innovators and reforming procurement so that the best companies, not just the most familiar ones, can compete for contracts,” she writes.
The space-based optical imaging market (including visible, multispectral, and hyperspectral payloads) commanded 35 percent of the total $658 million SB-SSA sensor market in 2025. European companies like Simera Sense and EnduroSat (which raised 43 million euros or $50 million in Bulgaria) are developing the optical technology that could anchor a European SB-SSA constellation. But without procurement reform and sustained multi-year funding commitments, these capabilities may not scale in time.
The Window Is Closing
The gap between threat and capability is widening. Global SSA spending is projected at $61 billion over the next decade. China is fielding commercial SSA enterprises alongside its military infrastructure. The United States operates the Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program, which has deployed space-based patrol satellites since 2014.
Europe says it is striving for strategic autonomy. The question is whether the political will, procurement reform, and sustained investment will arrive before some crisis in orbit exposes the continent’s vulnerability.
“Now is the time to obtain it,” Brun concludes.