A bitter dispute is unfolding in Brussels over the true cost of removing Chinese telecommunications equipment from European networks. The GSMA, a global trade body representing mobile network operators, has published a report estimating that replacing equipment from high-risk vendors, primarily Huawei and ZTE, would cost between €30 billion and €40 billion (approximately US$34-45 billion). That figure is roughly four times higher than the European Commission’s own estimate of €3.4 billion to €4.3 billion per year over three years, or approximately €10 billion to €13 billion total.
The Commission has proposed banning high-risk vendors under a new EU Cybersecurity Act, citing national security concerns over potential surveillance and supply chain vulnerabilities. Several EU member states, including Sweden, the Netherlands, and Estonia, have already restricted or phased out Huawei equipment from their 5G networks. But operators in countries with heavy Chinese equipment deployment, including Germany, Hungary, and parts of Eastern Europe, face significantly higher replacement costs.
According to the GSMA’s analysis, removing high-risk vendors from mobile networks alone would cost €16 billion to €22 billion. Fixed network replacement adds approximately €5 billion, and transport network replacement adds another €9 billion to €12 billion. Beyond the direct hardware costs, the report warns that reducing the number of equipment suppliers from three major players, Ericsson, Nokia, and Huawei, to two would reduce competitive pressure and add an estimated €8.5 billion in higher prices between 2027 and 2030.
The Commission’s lower estimate assumes that much of the Huawei and ZTE equipment would need replacement anyway as part of normal network lifecycle upgrades. The GSMA counters that a forced, accelerated replacement timeline, compressing what would be a decade-long natural refresh cycle into three to four years, imposes incremental costs that the Commission’s model does not capture.
Some analysts have questioned the GSMA’s methodology. Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, director at the European Centre for International Political Economy, has argued that if the study deducted replacement costs that would have occurred anyway under normal conditions, the net incremental cost would be closer to the Commission’s figures. The industry counters that the forced timeline creates additional expenses for logistics, planning, and parallel network operation during the transition period.
The dispute is not purely academic. European telecom operators, facing tight margins and heavy infrastructure investment requirements for 5G standalone networks, are pushing for compensation mechanisms or extended deadlines. Several national governments have indicated they expect the EU budget to help cover the replacement costs. The Commission has not yet responded to the GSMA’s report or signaled whether financial support will be part of the final legislation.
Sources: TechRadar (Jul 26, 2026); Politico EU (Jul 22, 2026); Mobile Europe (Jul 23, 2026); The Register (Jul 24, 2026)