The Houthis have declared a “maritime embargo” on Saudi Arabia and attacked at least one Saudi-flagged tanker in the Red Sea, pushing Brent crude past $100 a barrel for the first time since May. The attack on the tanker Encelia, struck by an unknown projectile about 130 kilometers southwest of al-Shuqaiq on Wednesday night, was followed by a claim that ten other vessels had been forced to turn back.
This is not a sideshow to the US-Iran war. It is a second maritime front opening at the same moment and for the same reason: the war in the Middle East has cut the world’s two most important oil chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab, and no one has a plan to reopen either.
The Houthis are explicit about their motive. On Monday they declared the embargo, saying it was retaliation for a Saudi blockade of Houthi-controlled ports and for a Saudi airstrike on Sanaa airport. The group, which controls most of northern Yemen and the Red Sea coastline facing the Bab al-Mandab, has been attacking commercial shipping since October 2023. They paused after the Gaza ceasefire last October, but the pause is over.
The Encelia attack is the most significant action since the embargo declaration. The tanker slowed and turned east at around 7 p.m. Wednesday, then reported itself “not under command” an hour later. It stopped near the Farasan Islands. The crew is safe. A second Saudi-flagged tanker, the Layla, was also claimed as a target, though no independent confirmation of a strike exists.
The broader Houthi operation, forcing ships to turn back from the strait, amounts to an attempt to close the Bab al-Mandab to Saudi-linked shipping. If sustained, it would cut off Saudi Arabia’s ability to export oil through the Red Sea, which is the route the kingdom has been relying on since Iran’s IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely closed.”
Saudi Arabia had been shifting exports to its east-west pipeline and Red Sea terminals to bypass Hormuz. That workaround now has its own problem.
The oil market noticed. Brent crude settled at $100.69 on Thursday, up seven percent in a week. War-risk insurance premiums in the region have climbed to 7.5 to 10 percent of hull value. Before the war, they were one to three percent.
The Houthis have sunk four ships and killed nine crew since their campaign began in 2023. They are not a nuisance force. They are an actor with a growing arsenal of anti-ship missiles and drones, a strategic position at the mouth of the Red Sea, and a demonstrated willingness to use both against Saudi Arabia and any country they consider complicit in the blockade of Yemen.
Mediator Oman is working to restart Houthi-Saudi talks. The talks have not yet resumed. Meanwhile, the US continues its 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, and the IRGC has warned that any base used by the US, including RAF Fairford in Britain, where B-1 bombers operate, is a “legitimate target.”
The war has entered a phase where the number of active fronts exceeds anyone’s ability to manage them. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Bab al-Mandab is under blockade. And oil is at $100 with no ceiling in sight.