Can you negotiate peace while threatening war? Trump’s mixed signals on Iran

BURGENSTOCK, Switzerland. The central paradox of American diplomacy toward Iran played out in full view on Sunday as Vice President JD Vance sat down with Iranian officials at a luxury resort overlooking Lake Lucerne while, thousands of miles away in Washington, President Donald Trump fired off threats to restart the very war his own administration is trying to end.

The split-screen moment captured a fundamental tension at the heart of US strategy: can you negotiate a ceasefire with one hand while brandishing a club with the other?

Vance, arriving at the Burgenstock hotel complex on a clear Swiss morning, called the face-to-face meeting with Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf a “historic” opportunity. He said he hoped Washington and Tehran could “turn over a new leaf” and reset a relationship defined by decades of hostility and, most recently, a devastating war.

“Make progress on the nuclear issue, make progress on the Lebanon ceasefire issue,” Vance told reporters, outlining the twin goals of the talks. The quadrilateral session, which also included mediators from Pakistan and Qatar, was the first direct encounter between senior US and Iranian officials since the interim peace deal was reached last week.

But even as Vance extended an outstretched hand from the alpine resort, Trump was extending a closed fist from the White House.

In a series of social media posts timed to coincide with the talks, Trump threatened to renew military strikes against Iran if Tehran failed to restrain Hezbollah operations in Lebanon. He also warned that if Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, “we will take over your country.” The president separately threatened to levy US tolls on commercial shipping through the strait, framing the fees as compensation for “services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East.”

The threats landed like a bomb in the negotiating room.

Ghalibaf, a former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, dismissed Trump’s warnings outright. Iranian delegates left the talks in protest, according to multiple reports. Qatar and Pakistan remained at the table as mediators, but the diplomatic momentum that Vance had labored to build was visibly shaken.

What each side wants

The stakes of the negotiations reach well beyond the Burgenstock facility. The interim deal signed last week established a 60-day framework for detailed talks. Under the terms, commercial vessels may pass through the Strait of Hormuz without charge during that window, though the agreement does not preclude future tolls. One of the key conditions Iran must meet is a halt to fighting in Lebanon, where Iranian-backed Hezbollah has been trading fire with Israeli forces.

For Iran, the end goals are clear: sanctions relief, recognition of its nuclear program within certain limits, and a guaranteed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for Iranian oil exports. Tehran closed the strait earlier this week, citing what it called Israeli ceasefire violations in Lebanon. The move sent oil prices spiking and drew condemnation from the dozens of nations that signed on to support the interim peace framework.

For the United States, the objectives are no less ambitious. Vance’s team is pushing for verifiable limits on Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity, a durable ceasefire in Lebanon that separates Hezbollah from Iranian command structures, and a reopening of Gulf shipping lanes. Professor and political analyst Mahjoub Zweiri, in an analysis for Al Jazeera, described the talks as a moment in which both sides are seeking a “durable end” to the war while testing each other’s red lines on the nuclear file and regional influence.

But Trump’s threats complicate the picture. Iran’s negotiators, who are deeply sensitive to domestic perceptions that they negotiated from a position of weakness, must return to Tehran and explain why they accepted terms while the US president was simultaneously threatening to destroy their country. This contradiction weakens Vance’s position at the table and strengthens hard-liners inside Iran who opposed the talks from the start.

Israel’s shadow

Compounding the difficulty is Israel’s posture. Excluded from the Switzerland talks, Israel has said it is not party to the interim agreement and will keep its forces in Lebanon regardless of what Vance and Ghalibaf agree to. This creates a dangerous loophole: the Lebanon ceasefire condition that Iran must meet is one that Israel, the other belligerent, has not committed to honoring.

“The real test of these talks is not whether they produce a text,” Zweiri said. “It is whether Washington can speak with one voice and whether both sides have the political will to enforce what they sign.”

Trump’s threats have also deepened criticism from within his own party. Republican hard-liners have compared the interim deal unfavorably to the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which Trump himself withdrew from in 2018. The irony is not lost on observers: Trump is simultaneously defending a deal that mirrors the structure of the nuclear agreement he once called “the worst deal ever,” while threatening to bomb the country he just agreed to negotiate with.

As the sun set over Lake Lucerne on Sunday, Vance’s team was still working to salvage the session. Pakistani and Qatari mediators shuttled between delegations. Whether the talks can survive the whiplash of Trump’s threats remains an open question. But one thing is clear: negotiating a ceasefire is hard enough without the chief executive of one party threatening to restart the war before the ink is dry.

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