The probability of a “very strong” El Niño event has surged to 81%, according to NOAA’s latest ENSO diagnostic update issued on July 9, an 18-point jump from the 63% forecast just one month earlier. That single number, combined with unprecedented model agreement, has climatologists warning that the 2026-2027 El Niño could be the strongest since records began in the late 1800s.
What the Numbers Say
The July 9 update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the chance of a very strong El Niño, defined as a sea-surface temperature anomaly of at least +1.5°C in the central Pacific (Niño-3.4 region), at 81% for the October-December window. The probability that El Niño conditions will persist through early spring 2027 stands at 97%.
But the headline figure may still understate the potential strength. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, analyzed the July model runs from 14 different forecasting systems, 667 ensemble members in total, and estimated a roughly 90% chance that the 2026-2027 El Niño will become the strongest on record. The multi-model median peak is +3.6°C, which would be 0.8°C hotter than the previous record of +2.75°C set during the 2015-2016 event.
“The median estimate is now 3.6°C, roughly 0.8°C hotter than the prior record,” Hausfather wrote on July 13. “I’m generally pretty measured about these things. There has been only one time in recent years when I was truly shocked, until today.”
NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) reported similar unanimity from its SPEAR model: all 30 ensemble members produce a peak El Niño “at least competitive with the strongest events over the past century.” The July forecast is “notably warmer than last month’s forecast,” the GFDL team noted.
What Changed From June
The jump from 63% to 81% in just one month reflects a fundamental shift in the ocean-atmosphere system. A downwelling Kelvin wave, a pulse of warm water traveling eastward across the Pacific, has deepened the thermocline and raised sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Critically, atmospheric coupling has now been confirmed: westerly wind anomalies and enhanced convection in the tropical Pacific mean the ocean and atmosphere are now reinforcing each other, a positive feedback that reduces forecast uncertainty.
In April, the probability of a very strong El Niño was just 25%, meaning the odds have more than tripled in three months.
A ‘Super El Niño’, What That Means
NOAA uses the term “very strong” for events with a Niño-3.4 anomaly of +1.5°C or higher. The term “Super El Niño” is a media construct, not an official classification, but it refers to the same threshold. The four very strong events since 1950, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16, have all caused severe global disruption.
A peak of +3.6°C would sit entirely outside the envelope of anything ever observed. “The middle 80% of the forecast ensemble sits entirely at or above the all-time record,” Hausfather noted. “Even the low-end estimate of 2.8°C grazes it.”
Impacts Already Unfolding
While the El Niño event has not yet peaked, impacts are already being felt and prepared for. Peru declared a state of emergency on July 3 in anticipation of heavy rains linked to El Niño. Meteorologists warn of severe flooding in East Africa and parts of Asia, alongside intensified drought in other regions, driven by shifts in monsoon patterns.
Climate scientist Emily Black of the University of Reading and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science cautioned that the interaction between El Niño and long-term warming makes this event especially dangerous. “El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, but it is now happening against the backdrop of a much warmer planet,” she said. “Records are compelling, but impacts are what matter. Even if it falls just short of a record, a very strong El Niño can still have serious consequences.”
The commodity markets are already responding. StoneX, a global agricultural risk management firm, cut its 2026-2027 global cocoa surplus forecast from 267,000 to 149,000 metric tonnes, citing El Niño risk.
How This Updates Earlier Coverage
1ban.news has covered the developing El Niño since early June, when forecasters first identified a 63% chance of a very strong event. The key changes since that June 12 analysis: the probability has risen from 63% to 81%; atmospheric coupling is now confirmed, not merely projected; and the model consensus, across 14 different systems, has converged on a preliminary record. Carbon Brief projects that 2027 will likely become the warmest year on record as a result.
Sources
1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, July 9, 2026.
2. NOAA GFDL SPEAR Model Forecast, July 6, 2026.
3. Z. Hausfather, “The Climate Brink,” July 13, 2026.
4. P. Pester, “Super El Niño keeps getting even more likely,” LiveScience, July 17, 2026.