Two stories from one day tell you everything about the state of the Iran war. The American vice president accused Israel of manipulating US public opinion to keep the war going. And Qatar, the region’s most energetic mediator, had to publicly deny that it was joining the fighting.
The war is in its sixth straight day of renewed US strikes. The ceasefire deal signed last month is dead. And the countries that should be pulling together are pulling apart.
JD Vance went on the Joe Rogan podcast and said what sitting US officials do not usually say about allies. He accused members of the Israeli government of running “a very discreet, extremely well-funded campaign” to influence American opinion and prolong the conflict with Iran.
“I definitely think you have seen this very discreet, extremely well-funded campaign to try to derail the negotiation and try to derail the deal,” Vance said. He added that there is “exact evidence” that some Israeli leaders “hate the deal.”
Vance was careful to distinguish between trusting some in the Israeli government and calling out others. But he did not leave much room for interpretation: “What bothers me is actually when Americans allow, meaning American leadership allows, that influence to affect their judgment.”
The White House did not distance itself. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president would agree that foreign countries “certainly do try to persuade American public opinion.”
This is a significant break in the US-Israel relationship. The two countries launched wide-ranging strikes on Iran together in February. Israel has pushed for a complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, what it calls regime change, while the Trump administration has oscillated between bombing and negotiating. Vance, who attended the negotiations in Pakistan and Switzerland that produced the now-collapsed memorandum of understanding, appears to have concluded that Israel was working against those talks from the start.
On the same day Vance’s remarks aired, Qatar’s International Media Office issued a statement. The message was blunt: reports in Israeli media that Qatar had agreed to participate in military action against Iran are false. Categorically false.
“Qatari officials have repeatedly affirmed since the outset of the conflict that the country has not participated and will not participate in any military action against neighboring states,” the statement said.
Qatar blamed “individuals seeking to draw Qatar into the conflict, undermine its pivotal mediation role, and push the region towards further escalation.”
The denial matters because Qatar has been one of the only channels of communication between the US and Iran throughout the war. Doha hosted nuclear talks in 2024 and 2025. The Qatari emir visited Tehran personally when negotiations faltered. If Qatar is seen as a belligerent rather than a mediator, the diplomatic path closes entirely.
These two stories are connected by the same question: who benefits from a wider war?
Vance’s answer is that some Israeli politicians benefit, they want the US to do the fighting while they achieve objectives they could not reach alone. Qatar’s answer is that the people spreading lies about its role benefit, they want to burn the mediators so the fighting has no off-ramp.
Meanwhile, the bombing continues. The US launched fresh strikes Thursday, hitting Iranian military targets on the coast and, for the first time in this cycle, infrastructure inland. Iran’s IRGC has warned it will close other oil and gas export routes. Jordan, which does not host US bases despite Iranian claims to the contrary, has become a target of Iranian missiles.
The deal is gone. The mediator is under attack. And the alliance fighting the war is openly accusing one another of bad faith. It is hard to see how this ends at the negotiating table.