The ceasefire between the United States and Iran that was signed with much ceremony on June 14 is collapsing. US warplanes are striking Iranian cities. Iran is attacking American bases in the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed again. And neither side seems willing to stop.
The June 14 memorandum of understanding was never a permanent peace, it was a 60-day framework for talks. But it was supposed to stop the shooting long enough for diplomats to work out a real deal. Instead, it lasted less than a month.
What Went Wrong
The core of the MoU was a trade: Iran would stop attacking commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US would allow Iran to resume limited oil exports by lifting the naval blockade. Iran got cash. The world got oil. Both sides got breathing room.
It worked, briefly. Between June 10 and July 6, roughly a dozen LNG cargoes exited the strait. Iran cautiously resumed exports. Oil prices dropped from their wartime highs above $120 a barrel.
But the deal had a fatal ambiguity. Iran insisted that any vessel using routes not coordinated with Tehran was fair game, keeping the IRGC as the gatekeeper. The US insisted the strait was an international waterway and that ships could transit freely. Both sides interpreted the MoU their own way, and both were right, on paper. On the water, those interpretations clashed.
The Breaking Point
On July 8, Iran struck a Cyprus-flagged container ship using an unauthorized route. Trump declared the ceasefire over and revoked the oil-sales waiver that had been the MoU’s biggest carrot. The US then launched waves of strikes, around 90 sites on July 8 alone, then roughly 140 on July 12, targeting air defenses, radar, missile storage, and naval infrastructure along the Iranian coast.
Iran retaliated, striking US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan. The IRGC declared the strait closed again. Explosions were reported in Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Qeshm Island, and as far east as Chabahar.
The Deeper Problem
The MoU papered over the fundamental disagreement: who controls the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran’s UN envoy stated flatly: Any activity in the Strait of Hormuz, including its opening or demining operations, rests exclusively with Iran. Tehran wants sole authority over the waterway and the right to charge vessels for passage, upending decades of precedent treating it as an international strait.
The US position is the opposite. US officials demand that Iran make a public statement that the strait is open and ships will not be attacked. Washington has linked this to any future nuclear deal: no Hormuz guarantee, no nuclear talks.
Meanwhile, Khamenei’s funeral this week saw crowds openly calling for Trump’s assassination, and Trump responded by threatening 1,000 missiles locked and loaded against Iran. The ceasefire is not just failing, it is being actively dismantled by both sides.
The June 14 deal was never going to end the US-Iran war. It was a pause. Now the pause is over, and the war is back.